Will Type of Fiber Matter?

Posted by Dan Caruso
April 7, 2008

In the late 1990’s, I was smack in the middle of decisions on how many conduits Level 3 should build. ”Multi-Conduit, Continuously Upgradeable Network” was Level 3’s mantra. The centerpiece of this notion was that fiber technology would change. Older generations of fiber would become obsolete as new versions of fiber would be invented. Single Mode, Multi-Mode, LEAF, Enhanced LEAF were to be the beginning of a long line of technological advancements.

Level 3 would construct multiple conduits. As older fiber became obsolete, so would their competitors’ fiber. Would 4 be enough? No, more were needed. 6? 8? We settled on 12. Others caught on and put a few extra in of their own, just in case.

Fast forward 10 years later to 2008. Optronics have advanced in dramatic ways. However, no new advances in fiber technology have occurred. At least I don’t think they have–at a minimum, no one has brought up the topic in my telecom circles. Pawan Jaggi (http://www.zoominfo.com/people/Jaggi_Pawan_70555863.aspx), can you shed some light on this topic?

I think is safe to say that changes in fiber technology won’t be a competitive factor for the next several years. However, we need to treat this as an area where the long term verdict is still out. If an entirely new form of fiber is invented that, when combined with optronics, dramatically reduces the cost of bandwidth transport, there willl be winners and losers. Level 3 might have the last laugh. For now though, this is probably akin to Iran worrying about what it will do when an oil-replacement technology is invented.

Baked into Zayo’s Investment Thesis is that currently deployed fiber will be sufficient.